LED industry internal and external troubles into the stock market "face change king"

A few days ago, Sanan Optoelectronics pulled out "Ten Lianyang". Last week, there were a number of institutional seats to buy the company's stock to push the stock price to the daily limit.

The reason for the stock price change is its restarting fixed-income project. Two months ago, Sanan Optoelectronics stopped planning and increasing the project on the grounds that the market environment was not optimistic, and now it is re-planning. The company quickly transferred the "gun head", which really made the investors somewhat accidental, and also allowed the pre-ambush institutions to have the opportunity to gain profits after the bottoming.

It is not only Sanan Optoelectronics, but also the LED industry in which it is located. A few months ago, the industry was hotly discussing "LED is the next PV." Today, some people talked about "the LED industry is out of the winter" and "from overcapacity to market recovery."

Shilianyang restarts the fixed project

In half a month, the increase was over 40%, and the monthly increase was nearly 100%. Without any warning, Sanan Optoelectronics' share price rose a bit. From May 15th to 17th, the abnormal fluctuation of Sanan Optoelectronics' stock price rose by more than 20% for three consecutive days caused concern of the regulatory authorities. The company issued a clarification statement for this purpose, and at the same time “passively” brought out the information to plan to restart the fixed-income project: it plans to plan a non-public offering of A-shares and launch the Wuhu Optoelectronics Industrialization (Phase II) project in due course.

Obviously, the Sanan photoelectric wind leaked, and the scent-sensitive institutions had already heard the wind in the end of April, and the layout was bottom-selling. Last Wednesday, four-seat institutional seats entered the top five buying list of Sanan Optoelectronics, with a total purchase of 171 million yuan, boosting the stock price limit on the day. If the stock price soars, it will take a few days for the information to be restarted.

Sanan Optoelectronics said that the launch of the additional issuance project at this time is because "the current securities market environment and industry development environment have improved." The non-public offering of shares raised funds is still under planning, and it still needs to be reviewed and approved by the company's board of directors and shareholders meeting and approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Whether the matter can be implemented is uncertain.

It is worth noting that the Wuhu Optoelectronics Industrialization (Phase II) project mentioned above was the project that the company decided to terminate in March this year because of “changes in the market environment”.

Back in May 2011, Sanan Optoelectronics announced an additional issuance plan, the total amount of funds to be raised is not more than 8 billion yuan, for Wuhu Optoelectronics Industrialization (Phase II) project and LED application product industrialization project, of which Wuhu Optoelectronics Industrialization (2 The investment amount of the project is 5 billion yuan. In August 2011, the company issued another announcement. According to feedback from the regulatory authorities, the amount of additional issuance will be reduced to 6.3 billion yuan, and the funds raised for the photovoltaic industrialization (second phase) project will be reduced to 4 billion yuan.

However, the project in Wuhu has not seen progress. In March of this year, Sanan Optoelectronics decided to terminate the above-mentioned additional issuance. The company stated that due to changes in the market environment, in conjunction with the company's situation, the company decided to terminate the plan after negotiating with the sponsor institution Ping An Securities, and withdrew the application documents of the plan from the CSRC.

The reporter is concerned that Sanan Optoelectronics belongs to the LED upstream industry. In 2012, the whole industry was saturated, overcapacity, management did not recommend continued expansion, and the secondary market was relatively sluggish last year. Under these conditions, Sanan Optoelectronics decided decisively. Abandon the issuance project. Now that the project is restarted, the market in Sanan's photoelectric port is a good one or a bad one, but it is worth repeating.

A swarm of bee industry is uneven

Spring River plumbing duck prophet. In view of the recent resilience of the LED sector, there are many brokers in the industry who help the drums to find reasons. Some analysts said that at this time, the government's demand for energy conservation and environmental protection is increasing, support policies are continuously introduced, and the LED industry is significantly warming up in the near future. A number of brokers issued research reports optimistic about the LED industry, that the market sentiment is approaching, the performance turning point is gradually determined. Related stocks in the secondary market have also been all the way to the red, and the performance of energy-saving lighting concept stocks is particularly eye-catching.

The industry said that under the stimulation of external warm air, some LED manufacturers in Guangdong have indeed begun to get busy again. Shenzhen Ruifeng Optoelectronics, Lehman Optoelectronics, Moso Power and other listed companies are full of recruitment advertisements, orders are coming, so that the lighting chip products were out of stock, the mid-stream packaging manufacturers' machines almost run around the clock. People who are engaged in LEDs seem to have forgotten the nightmare that many large factories have closed down in the past two years, and they have forgotten the situation that they suffered in the past year.

It was hard to expect signs of recovery. Shenzhen recently quietly canceled the first LED industry plan. This has poured a cold water on the just-hot market. The interpretation of this policy shift in the industry is mixed. Some people confess that it is still unclear whether the LED industry will suddenly continue to heat up in the short term. It is inevitable to rely solely on price advantage to open up the land to avoid the low-end manufacturing.

In this regard, industry analysts pointed out that the LED industry is still warm and cold, and the industry chain is uneven. In the first quarter of this year, the number of street lamps and tunnel lights in Guangdong Province reached 76,000 baht, which exceeded the total amount of tenders for the whole year of 2012 by 75,000 baht. Although the downstream lighting market has opened a hole, the overseas market and the domestic commercial lighting market have a way out, but as far as the industry as a whole, the upstream manufacturers engaged in display chips suffer from overcapacity, still suffering; midstream packaging, devices and even downstream End-use manufacturers are numerous, and the products are mixed, which not only exacerbates competition in the industry, but also hurts the reputation of domestic brands. "Compared with chip manufacturers, midstream packaging manufacturers face more intense competition. At the same time, due to the intermediate link in the industry chain, most packaging manufacturers are caught in the 'linkage debt' dilemma, that is, downstream terminal application manufacturers are in arrears with the packaging manufacturers' money, packaging manufacturers Only the money of the upstream chip and the luminescent material manufacturer can be owed. Once a problem occurs in a certain link, the packaging factory faces a large risk of financial breakage."

In fact, the uneven heat and cold in the industrial chain can also be seen from the performance of listed companies. In the first quarter of 2013, the total revenue of 25 LED companies listed on the A-share market was 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%; the total net profit reached 700 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year.

In the first quarter of this year, the overall performance of the LED industry continued to increase without gaining profits, but the overall performance decline trend was significantly weakened. Among them, the mid-stream packaging and downstream application companies' net profit performance is better than the upstream chip companies, mainly due to factors such as severe overcapacity of upstream chips and low operating rate of enterprises.

Huo Huowang Chinese and foreign enterprises rushing to the beach

The LED lighting market has seen a slight improvement in commercial applications, and almost all companies in the industrial chain have piled up inside.

At present, Huacan Optoelectronics and Silan Mingxin, the original manufacturers of display chips, have begun to transform the development and production of lighting chips.

Huacan Optoelectronics began to increase the development of the white light chip market last year. Its new Zhangjiagang project with a total investment of 1.8 billion yuan is expected to be completed by the end of this year, and 50% of its production capacity will be released in the lighting white chip business.

Jiang Zhongyong, general manager of Hangzhou Silan Mingxin Technology Co., Ltd. said that the expansion of production this year will increase the proportion of lighting chips to 30% to 40%. In addition, the original lighting chip manufacturers, including Dehao Runda, are also rushing to expand production.

Some people in the industry are worried that although the current white LED chip for lighting is still relatively high, the industry will reproduce the situation of mutual extrusion as the production capacity of the original and new manufacturers is released.

At the same time, the industry not only has "internal worry" but also "external troubles". Multinational groups such as Samsung, GE, and Cooper have stepped into the LED industry and stirred up the domestic LED industry. At present, Samsung Group has abandoned the liquid crystal display technology and focused on the OLED panel. Therefore, the original backlight packaging capacity of Samsung LED has been transferred to the lighting field. As a newcomer to the market, Samsung is attempting to attack the city in a price war. "Samsung is playing a price war and competing with domestic manufacturers at a lower price. It will be dragged down by the time, and the market will eventually be occupied by the other side." One market person commented on Samsung. At the same time, there are also some international lighting giants who are also sharpening their swords. For example, the LED professional lighting factory invested by Philips in Chengdu will be put into production in September this year. Osram has recently launched nearly 20 new LED products in China.

Weaning is difficult to subsidize

Sanan Optoelectronics nearly doubled its revenue last year, but its net profit decreased by 10%. According to its annual report last year, Sanan Optoelectronics' operating income in 2012 was 3.36 billion yuan, up 92.48% year-on-year; net profit was 810 million yuan, down 13.47% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 549 million yuan, up 18.94% year-on-year.

Another listed company in the industry, Dehao Runda, is similar to its situation. Its revenue in 2012 was 2.824 billion yuan, down 7.89% year-on-year; net profit was 168 million yuan, down 57.14% year-on-year. For the decline in performance, Dehao Runda said that an important reason was that the government subsidies that were included in the profit and loss in the fourth quarter of last year failed to meet expectations. Similarly, the subsidies granted by local governments to Sanan Optoelectronics in the past few years are also numerous. Among them, the two largest ones are: government subsidies of 911 million yuan for MOCVD equipment procurement subsidy projects and 480 million yuan for equipment purchase subsidies of Japanese core photovoltaics. In addition, there are various subsidy items such as key new products and LED chip industrialization. The data shows that since the listing of the backdoor in 2008, Sanan Optoelectronics has received a total of 2.9 billion yuan in government subsidies in various names.

The industry told reporters that from the perspective of listed companies, government subsidies have accelerated the rise of the LED industry in mainland China. It is difficult for LED companies in mainland China to compete with foreign capital, but with subsidies, technology will gradually grow to be competitive. Unexpectedly, the special care of the government, on the other hand, has played a counter-productive role in promoting enterprises. Many companies have incurred subsidy dependence, and many years of operation still cannot be weaned.

"Some enterprises have not yet made fundamental breakthroughs in core technologies, and the product composition has not been further optimized. Government subsidies have caused serious overcapacity of domestic LED chips. In the past few years, the country has added more than 20 LED chip projects every year, most At that time, there were more than 80 domestic chip companies, and now there are only more than 50, and more than 20 have been withdrawn since 2012. Many projects have invested in the front-end investment.” Yan Yan said that overcapacity also caused LED chip prices. In a row, in 2012 and in the first quarter of 2013, many LED listed companies continued the momentum of “increasing revenue without increasing profits”. If the subsidies of Sanan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda are taken off, the two LED chip listed companies will basically lose money in 2011 and 2012. Dehao Runda forecasts that net profit for the first half of this year will fall by 30% to 60% year-on-year, mainly due to the combined effect of government subsidies received in January-June 2013 compared to the same period last year and the year-on-year improvement in the main business.

More market participants pointed out that at least three years ago, the entire industry realized that LED lighting could not start the market in such a state. However, in three years, the product was like a white paper, the product was still like that, the price dropped, and the sales were still the same. The sales, of course, the performance is still the same. "But this is nothing. What everyone cares about is not this, but the listing. Using the government's support for this industry, we can successfully obtain a GEM listing, and then use the government's series of incentive policies and procurement plans. Selling products, if the products are not selling well, they will earn subsidies and market listings. In the end, the industry is not good, it doesn't matter, you can do other things in the circle, and you can even do real estate."

(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)

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